Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 7.696137 8.845083 10.085051 11.520004 13.132032 14.884172 16.929800
2026-02-01 6.043855 7.601515 9.415433 11.672641 14.394078 17.556621 21.496275
2026-02-08 5.086802 6.786760 8.866458 11.577117 14.993605 19.131558 24.494388
2026-02-15 4.350060 6.124082 8.393267 11.475828 15.516300 20.589988 27.394413
2026-02-22 3.852537 5.683027 8.116308 11.540809 16.180831 22.186545 30.473386
2026-03-01 3.533891 5.436708 8.054706 11.856514 17.160061 24.208192 34.175816
2026-03-08 3.114189 4.994240 7.669923 11.676091 17.424413 25.259643 36.603699
2026-03-15 2.667958 4.460567 7.099307 11.171370 17.177967 25.569768 37.998979
2026-03-22 2.498686 4.326714 7.094711 11.474948 18.085259 27.509370 41.728833
2026-03-29 2.328792 4.172170 7.040631 11.690615 18.862332 29.284916 45.288464
2026-04-05 2.111380 3.916997 6.806018 11.605171 19.170908 30.379490 47.892717
2026-04-12 1.907761 3.663288 6.550037 11.461131 19.369610 31.305206 50.269321
2026-04-19 1.748692 3.474015 6.388365 11.463183 19.805580 32.623418 53.319747
2026-04-26 1.622395 3.330342 6.290542 11.560679 20.394871 34.199005 56.826767
2026-05-03 1.480951 3.143247 6.100619 11.484812 20.688730 35.314747 59.652423
2026-05-10 1.349490 2.960874 5.902727 11.377706 20.917723 36.328112 62.346697
2026-05-17 1.256571 2.843306 5.810202 11.444487 21.435450 37.816583 65.841340
2026-05-24 1.205016 2.803038 5.855444 11.757053 22.385186 40.041082 70.598174
2026-05-31 1.095166 2.631363 5.639617 11.578248 22.465869 40.827819 73.031212
2026-06-07 0.958620 2.387938 5.265216 11.077173 21.943342 40.573362 73.721478
2026-06-14 0.923607 2.361649 5.314649 11.378530 22.875251 42.818303 78.666874
2026-06-21 0.881572 2.315245 5.319544 11.592588 23.654934 44.827015 83.276913
2026-06-28 0.813290 2.201372 5.177163 11.507781 23.873738 45.864249 86.256016